Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy game?

Conspiracy

Of 344 developers who shipped a Conspiracy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 795 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×678 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 795 games are announced against 188 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 795 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 344
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.2k → $3.2k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 344
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,946)
Top 5% $322k (exactly $321,985)
Developers, 2 yr 344
Released games 1,019
Announced 795
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 36,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 191 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 795 games are announced against 188 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Conspiracy

60 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Strategy RPG + Conspiracy Fair $1.2k 19 devs
  2. Point & Click + Conspiracy Poor odds $7.2k 55 devs
  3. Life Sim + Conspiracy Poor odds $6.1k 12 devs
  4. Management + Conspiracy Poor odds $3.6k 14 devs
  5. Stealth + Conspiracy Poor odds $3.4k 22 devs
  6. Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy Poor odds $3.0k 15 devs
  7. Logic + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.6k 35 devs
  8. Visual Novel + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.4k 79 devs
  9. Walking Simulator + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.2k 36 devs
  10. Puzzle + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.1k 99 devs
  11. Survival + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.1k 22 devs
  12. Character Customization + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.9k 12 devs
  13. Adventure + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.8k 204 devs
  14. Physics + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.8k 16 devs
  15. Choose Your Own Adventure + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.8k 40 devs
  16. Survival Horror + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.8k 28 devs
  17. Investigation + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.6k 90 devs
  18. Co-op + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.4k 9 devs
  19. Combat + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.4k 30 devs
  20. Platformer + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.4k 16 devs
  21. Choices Matter + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.3k 67 devs
  22. Incremental + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  23. Turn-Based Tactics + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.2k 15 devs
  24. RPG + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.2k 58 devs
  25. Simulation + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.1k 78 devs
  26. Exploration + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.0k 118 devs
  27. Interactive Fiction + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.0k 61 devs
  28. FPS + Conspiracy Poor odds $987 24 devs
  29. Action + Conspiracy Poor odds $959 105 devs
  30. Immersive Sim + Conspiracy Poor odds $898 35 devs
  31. 3D Platformer + Conspiracy Poor odds $836 14 devs
  32. Multiple Endings + Conspiracy Poor odds $807 86 devs
  33. Roguelite + Conspiracy Poor odds $719 16 devs
  34. Roguelike + Conspiracy Poor odds $719 15 devs
  35. Action-Adventure + Conspiracy Poor odds $657 63 devs
  36. Hidden Object + Conspiracy Poor odds $600 27 devs
  37. Arcade + Conspiracy Poor odds $600 22 devs
  38. Resource Management + Conspiracy Poor odds $600 21 devs
  39. Strategy + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 51 devs
  40. Time Management + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 18 devs
  41. JRPG + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 11 devs
  42. Sandbox + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 9 devs
  43. Action RPG + Conspiracy Poor odds $598 15 devs
  44. Diplomacy + Conspiracy Poor odds $538 11 devs
  45. Shooter + Conspiracy Poor odds $449 29 devs
  46. Political Sim + Conspiracy Poor odds $449 11 devs
  47. Open World + Conspiracy Poor odds $419 13 devs
  48. Inventory Management + Conspiracy Poor odds $359 15 devs
  49. Destruction + Conspiracy Poor odds $90 9 devs
  50. PvP + Conspiracy Dead $2.5k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition older $19.99 23,875 80% 716k $14M (exactly $14,317,837) Ubisoft Montreal
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Assassin's Creed® Revelations older $19.99 19,244 83% 577k $12M (exactly $11,540,627) Ubisoft Montreal
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Broken Sword - Shadow of the Templars: Reforged $29.99 954 93% 29k $858k (exactly $858,314) Revolution Software Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.