Do I ship it?

Games › Logic › Logic + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Logic game?

Logic + Conspiracy

Of 35 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×785 the market median. Revenue is up 240% on the market; 57 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 240% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $2.1k → $10k → $1.8k → $7.1k → $32k → $4.9k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,085)
Top 5% $373k (exactly $373,013)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 89
Announced 57
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 240% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Logic; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Investigation, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Judgment 2022 · $11M Lost Judgment 2022 · $9.0M Murder by Numbers 2020 · $518k Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division 2026 · $382k The Shell Part III: Paradiso 2025 · $373k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
Murder by Numbers older $14.99 1,152 85% 35k $518k (exactly $518,054) Mediatonic
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
The Shell Part III: Paradiso $19.99 622 96% 19k $373k (exactly $373,013) Innocent Grey
Confidential Killings - A Detective Game $14.99 716 76% 21k $322k (exactly $321,985) BRANE, Lorenzo Boni
Nancy Drew®: Mystery of the Seven Keys™ older $32.00 318 56% 9.5k $305k (exactly $305,280) HeR Interactive
CaseCracker2 older $11.99 759 90% 23k $273k (exactly $273,012) BlackRobe
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
The Ratline $14.99 329 82% 9.9k $148k (exactly $147,951) Owlskip Games
A Case of Fraud $8.99 540 97% 16k $146k (exactly $145,638) Hesperus Games
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room $12.99 191 81% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,433) mc2games
Dofamine VR $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) VR-WRG
Decide 4 God $29.99 49 93% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Miracle Moon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.