Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy FPS?

FPS + Conspiracy

Of 24 developers who shipped a Conspiracy FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450. 69 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 725% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 725% on the market, 69 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $719 → $8.5k → $119 → $657 → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,228)
Top 5% $34k (exactly $34,177)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 78
Announced 69
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 725% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.64 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.64 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,284 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $990, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M SCP: 5K 2022 · EA · $7.4M Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition 2007 · $2.9M XIII 2020 · $824k Ricochet 2000 · $681k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition older $6.99 13,740 94% 412k $2.9M (exactly $2,881,278) Ion Storm
XIII older $19.99 1,374 39% 41k $824k (exactly $823,988) PlayMagic
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Agent 64: Spies Never Die $21.64 863 86% 26k $560k (exactly $560,260) Replicant D6
Deus Ex: Invisible War older $6.99 2,199 57% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Ion Storm
Budget Cuts 2: Mission Insolvency older $14.99 460 81% 14k $207k (exactly $206,862) Neat Corporation, Fast Travel Games
NEDRA $14.99 76 76% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) Davit Andreasyan
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Cyberscape $14.99 43 93% 1.3k $19k (exactly $19,337) AtomicTorch Studio
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
They're Alive! $4.99 75 57% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Orion Games
Inky Blinky Bob $9.99 33 81% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) ELDELIC GAMES
A taste of home $2.99 90 94% 2.7k $8.1k (exactly $8,073) KuroGameMaker
The Fortress of Dr. Radiaki - Fancy Edition $5.99 23 82% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary,… (Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary, Maelstorm Software)
APPLECALYPSE $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) Pupicrap

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.