Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Combat game?

Combat + Conspiracy

Of 30 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 94 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 94 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 94 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $239 → $3.0k → $7.8k → $599 → $2.2k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $389,844)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 84
Announced 94
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,992 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M SCP: 5K 2022 · EA · $7.4M Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M Oddworld: Soulstorm Enhanced Edition 2022 · $605k Butcher's Creek 2025 · $461k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition older $19.99 23,875 80% 716k $14M (exactly $14,317,837) Ubisoft Montreal
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Oddworld: Soulstorm Enhanced Edition older $39.99 504 65% 15k $605k (exactly $604,649) Oddworld Inhabitants
Butcher's Creek $9.99 1,539 94% 46k $461k (exactly $461,238) David Szymanski
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Antro $14.99 42 92% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Gatera Studio
Chimera CUSTOM XG · EA $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Volok Games
Ovidius (Blood for Love) $6.99 31 67% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Narrator Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.