Games › JRPG › JRPG + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy JRPG?
JRPG + Conspiracy
Only 11 developers shipped a Conspiracy JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $8.3M, ×13326 the market median. Revenue is up 17120% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $78k (exactly $78,248) |
| Top 5% | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 20 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 17120% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- JRPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 94% positive over 5,154 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter 2025 · $8.4M 
Black Gold - Shining Town 2026 · $107k 
Hermit and Pig 2026 · $78k 
Hero Roy's Wedding 2022 · $48k 
Cairn: Mathair's Curse 2025 · $29k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
| | Black Gold - Shining Town | $13.99 | 255 80% | 7.7k | $107k (exactly $107,024) | Morexingame | |
| | Hermit and Pig | $14.99 | 174 98% | 5.2k | $78k (exactly $78,248) | Heavy Lunch Studio LLC | |
| | Hero Roy's Wedding | older | $6.99 | 230 74% | 6.9k | $48k (exactly $48,231) | SwordRP5 |
| | Cairn: Mathair's Curse | $19.99 | 48 89% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Ross McRitchie | |
 | For a Vast Future | older | $9.99 | 39 94% | 1.2k | $12k (exactly $11,688) | Retreaux Games |
 | 告死天使的审判 Death Angel Trial | older | $3.99 | 67 79% | 2.0k | $8.0k (exactly $8,020) | 我妻寒十 |
 | Granser - Act 1 | $9.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) | Steve Gal | |
 | [Neolithic]To the End | · EA older | $6.99 | 28 82% | 840 | $5.9k (exactly $5,872) | orochi2k |
 | Antagonist | older | $2.99 | 48 91% | 1.4k | $4.3k (exactly $4,306) | NIVLACART |
 | Odessa | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Aldorlea Games | |
 | Bereaved: Soldiers of Fate | · EA | $10.00 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Lost Gear Productions |
 | Critternauts | $7.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | Gergo V | |
 | Beyond The Tales | $3.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $239 (exactly $239) | Atomik Games, Charlie Pelaez | |
 | Avalone's Adventurers: My Parents were Assassinated so I've Started an Adventuring Party to Avoid a Political Marriage | $7.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Night Stroll Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.