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Should I ship a Conspiracy Stealth game?
Stealth + Conspiracy
Of 22 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×7.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is up 1695% on the market; 89 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) |
| Top 25% | $31k (exactly $31,169) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $203,898) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 99 |
| Announced | 89 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1695% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Stealth
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Stealth; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,788 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + Gun CustomizationPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M 
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M 
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M 
Assassin's Creed® Revelations 2011 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood | older | $19.99 | 24,958 88% | 749k | $15M (exactly $14,967,313) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition | older | $19.99 | 23,875 80% | 716k | $14M (exactly $14,317,837) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed® Revelations | older | $19.99 | 19,244 83% | 577k | $12M (exactly $11,540,627) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition | older | $6.99 | 13,740 94% | 412k | $2.9M (exactly $2,881,278) | Ion Storm |
 | The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication | older | $24.99 | 2,493 93% | 75k | $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Liberation HD | older | $19.99 | 3,051 54% | 92k | $1.8M (exactly $1,829,685) | Ubisoft Sofia |
 | XIII | older | $19.99 | 1,374 39% | 41k | $824k (exactly $823,988) | PlayMagic |
 | Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow | $19.99 | 340 75% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | Maze Theory | |
 | Rina's Undercover Train Operation | $13.99 | 286 70% | 8.6k | $120k (exactly $120,034) | Metamorphose | |
 | PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION | $13.99 | 178 87% | 5.3k | $75k (exactly $74,707) | Banana Hardsoft | |
 | NEDRA | $14.99 | 76 76% | 2.3k | $34k (exactly $34,177) | Davit Andreasyan | |
 | The Fear Business | $9.99 | 104 93% | 3.1k | $31k (exactly $31,169) | Tomás Esconjaureguy | |
 | Barking from the Dark | $3.99 | 197 88% | 5.9k | $24k (exactly $23,581) | shoftArt | |
 | Antro | $14.99 | 42 92% | 1.3k | $19k (exactly $18,887) | Gatera Studio | |
 | Saborus | $14.99 | 24 58% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | High Room Studio | |
 | A taste of home | $2.99 | 90 94% | 2.7k | $8.1k (exactly $8,073) | KuroGameMaker |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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