Games › Adventure › Adventure + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Adventure game?
Adventure + Conspiracy
Of 204 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 454 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1408 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 454 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $20,771) |
| Top 5% | $669k (exactly $668,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 204 |
| Released games | 641 |
| Announced | 454 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Investigation, Puzzle
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 34,879 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 116 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 454 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M 
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M 
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M 
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood | older | $19.99 | 24,958 88% | 749k | $15M (exactly $14,967,313) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition | older | $19.99 | 23,875 80% | 716k | $14M (exactly $14,317,837) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Assassin's Creed® Revelations | older | $19.99 | 19,244 83% | 577k | $12M (exactly $11,540,627) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | Judgment | older | $39.99 | 9,407 93% | 282k | $11M (exactly $11,285,578) | RGG Studio |
 | Lost Judgment | older | $39.99 | 7,461 93% | 224k | $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) | RGG Studio |
 | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | The Drifter | $19.99 | 4,735 97% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) | Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd | |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | Berry Bury Berry | $7.99 | 8,619 98% | 259k | $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) | Get(Color) Games | |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Broken Sword - Shadow of the Templars: Reforged | $29.99 | 954 93% | 29k | $858k (exactly $858,314) | Revolution Software Ltd | |
 | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.