Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Physics game?

Physics + Conspiracy

Only 16 developers shipped a Conspiracy Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Berry Bury Berry, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3290 the market median. Revenue is up 720% on the market; 36 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 720% on the market, 36 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Physics + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,331)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 31
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 720% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 10,022 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Project P.I.T.T. $9.99 961 78% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Froke
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
Gaia Beyond older $14.99 240 73% 7.2k $108k (exactly $107,928) Warp Turtle
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
Detective Penguin $6.99 54 87% 1.6k $11k (exactly $11,324) That Other Fish, That Fish
ColorBlend FX: Desaturation older $15.99 21 90% 630 $10k (exactly $10,074) Pi-Dev Bulgaria
MMY: Otherworld Mystery older $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Dnovel
If Fusion Were That Easy older $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Golden Coin Games
Unseen Diplomacy 2 $18.99 6 83% 180 $3.4k (exactly $3,418) Triangular Pixels
Spymaster · EA $11.99 6 100% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) InnerspaceVR
Crossed Wires $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Aleth Labs
Sense of Darkness $4.99 5 60% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Iurii Coseacov
A Totally Legal Archaeology Adventure $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Exponential production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.