Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Conspiracy
Of 79 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×785 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 134 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,712) |
| Top 5% | $373k (exactly $373,013) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 79 |
| Released games | 228 |
| Announced | 134 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,090 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Far Away 2021 · $3.0M 
BURIED STARS 2021 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
| | BURIED STARS | older | $39.99 | 2,117 83% | 64k | $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) | LINE Games Corporation |
 | Tails Noir | older | $24.99 | 2,592 66% | 78k | $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) | Eggnut |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | ROBOTICS;NOTES ELITE | older | $34.99 | 698 90% | 21k | $733k (exactly $732,691) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Fetish Locator Week One | older | $9.99 | 2,418 84% | 73k | $725k (exactly $724,675) | ViNovella Games |
 | The Shell Part III: Paradiso | $19.99 | 622 96% | 19k | $373k (exactly $373,013) | Innocent Grey | |
 | CUCKOLD SIMULATOR: Life as a Beta Male Cuck | $4.99 | 1,680 93% | 50k | $251k (exactly $251,496) | Team SNEED | |
 | DAEMON MASQUERADE | $14.99 | 514 95% | 15k | $231k (exactly $231,146) | Callum Page | |
 | Rina's Undercover Train Operation | $13.99 | 286 70% | 8.6k | $120k (exactly $120,034) | Metamorphose | |
 | Shale Hill Secrets | $14.99 | 245 80% | 7.4k | $110k (exactly $110,176) | Love-Joint | |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | Lucky Bastard | $15.99 | 195 75% | 5.9k | $94k (exactly $93,542) | LLP Clerik Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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