Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Roguelite?
Roguelite + Conspiracy
Only 16 developers shipped a Conspiracy Roguelite in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Prime Monster, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×389 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,029) |
| Top 5% | $185k (exactly $184,708) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Turn-Based Tactics
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 794 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
Prime Monster 2026 · $185k 
Rina's Undercover Train Operation 2026 · $120k 
The Backrooms 2022 · EA · $36k 
Deep Space Exploitation 2025 · $35k 
Seth 2026 · $14k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Prime Monster | $19.99 | 308 83% | 9.2k | $185k (exactly $184,708) | Cavalier Game Studios | |
| | Rina's Undercover Train Operation | $13.99 | 286 70% | 8.6k | $120k (exactly $120,034) | Metamorphose | |
| | The Backrooms | · EA older | $9.99 | 119 62% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $35,664) | Ionized Games |
| | Deep Space Exploitation | $8.99 | 131 96% | 3.9k | $35k (exactly $35,331) | JuhrJuhr | |
| | Seth | $12.99 | 36 77% | 1.1k | $14k (exactly $14,029) | Chaotic Games | |
 | Gobby McGobblenutz Presents - The Questionably Quirky Quiz Show | older | $1.99 | 140 98% | 4.2k | $8.4k (exactly $8,358) | Randumb Studios |
 | Chimera CUSTOM XG | · EA | $19.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $7.8k (exactly $7,796) | Volok Games |
 | Crash The Core | older | $4.99 | 49 67% | 1.5k | $7.3k (exactly $7,335) | Jerome Labelle |
 | Beast Agenda 2030 | older | $14.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) | Ouch Giver Games |
 | Rick Henderson | older | $4.99 | 24 95% | 720 | $3.6k (exactly $3,593) | Fat Pug Studio |
 | Paw Paw Destiny | $14.99 | 7 71% | 210 | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) | Daiyu.studio | |
 | 一橋動物記 | $4.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | wataru | |
 | Diceeee | $7.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $719 (exactly $719) | packnrollgames | |
 | Wild Radio Flux | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | K Storm Studio Ltd | |
 | Agartha Survivors | $4.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Michael Blair |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.