Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Survival game?

Survival + Conspiracy

Of 22 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is up 850% on the market; 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 850% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $66k → $539 → $4.8k → $599 → $2.5k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,093)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $117,741)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 80
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 850% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M BURIED STARS 2021 · $2.5M First Class Trouble 2021 · $1.4M Happy's Humble Burger Farm 2021 · $1.0M Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors 2023 · $125k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
BURIED STARS older $39.99 2,117 83% 64k $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) LINE Games Corporation
First Class Trouble older $14.99 3,103 79% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,395,419) Invisible Walls
Happy's Humble Burger Farm older $19.99 1,704 93% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,889) Scythe Dev Team
Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors older $3.99 1,045 94% 31k $125k (exactly $125,086) Coby Dox, Chudd Howard
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
The Matriarch older $4.99 724 75% 22k $108k (exactly $108,383) Chewa
ECO HOLE older $9.99 223 88% 6.7k $67k (exactly $66,833) AIHASTO
The Black Ice · EA $14.99 147 77% 4.4k $66k (exactly $66,106) RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
Dofamine VR $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) VR-WRG
Paradise: Musubi $14.99 73 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) PIL/SLASH
Barking from the Dark $3.99 197 88% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) shoftArt
Colony 37 · EA $2.99 224 95% 6.7k $20k (exactly $20,093) Valen
diffiCULT · EA $4.99 52 94% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Ouz Games
INVISIBLE FLOW $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) DOGHADHOUSE
GOVNOVOZ $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) KaiserGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.