Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Conspiracy
Of 67 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 207 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 207 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,684) |
| Top 5% | $97k (exactly $97,168) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 67 |
| Released games | 211 |
| Announced | 207 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,729 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 207 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Pentiment 2022 · $5.5M 
The Case of the Golden Idol 2022 · $5.3M 
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies 2026 · $3.5M 
Far Away 2021 · $3.0M 
BURIED STARS 2021 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | The Case of the Golden Idol | older | $17.99 | 9,794 97% | 294k | $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) | Color Gray Games |
| | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
| | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
| | BURIED STARS | older | $39.99 | 2,117 83% | 64k | $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) | LINE Games Corporation |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | Solium Infernum | older | $39.99 | 1,571 88% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) | League of Geeks |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Swansong | older | $49.99 | 561 65% | 17k | $841k (exactly $841,332) | Big Bad Wolf |
 | ROBOTICS;NOTES ELITE | older | $34.99 | 698 90% | 21k | $733k (exactly $732,691) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Fetish Locator Week One | older | $9.99 | 2,418 84% | 73k | $725k (exactly $724,675) | ViNovella Games |
 | Shale Hill Secrets | $14.99 | 245 80% | 7.4k | $110k (exactly $110,176) | Love-Joint | |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | Lucky Bastard | $15.99 | 195 75% | 5.9k | $94k (exactly $93,542) | LLP Clerik Studio | |
 | PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION | $13.99 | 178 87% | 5.3k | $75k (exactly $74,707) | Banana Hardsoft | |
 | Agent Sherine: Dancing Fox | $16.99 | 111 81% | 3.3k | $57k (exactly $56,577) | cv_studio | |
 | Decide 4 God | $29.99 | 49 93% | 1.5k | $44k (exactly $44,085) | Miracle Moon | |
 | Darker: Chapter 1 | $11.99 | 92 77% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,092) | Director Unknown | |
 | Breakthru | $14.99 | 54 50% | 1.6k | $24k (exactly $24,284) | Jan Buta |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.