Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy game?

Conspiracy

Of 344 developers who shipped a Conspiracy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 795 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×678 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 795 games are announced against 188 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 795 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 344
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.2k → $3.2k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 344
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,946)
Top 5% $322k (exactly $321,985)
Developers, 2 yr 344
Released games 1,019
Announced 795
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 36,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 191 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 795 games are announced against 188 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Conspiracy

60 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Dating Sim + Conspiracy Dead $1.6k 8 devs
  2. Turn-Based Strategy + Conspiracy Dead $1.2k 11 devs
  3. 2D Platformer + Conspiracy Dead $959 15 devs
  4. Shoot 'Em Up + Conspiracy Dead $836 5 devs
  5. Third-Person Shooter + Conspiracy Dead $599 9 devs
  6. Economy + Conspiracy Dead $538 8 devs
  7. Puzzle Platformer + Conspiracy Dead $479 8 devs
  8. PvE + Conspiracy Dead $449 15 devs
  9. Tactical + Conspiracy Dead $449 10 devs
  10. Dungeon Crawler + Conspiracy Dead $120 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition older $19.99 23,875 80% 716k $14M (exactly $14,317,837) Ubisoft Montreal
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Assassin's Creed® Revelations older $19.99 19,244 83% 577k $12M (exactly $11,540,627) Ubisoft Montreal
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Broken Sword - Shadow of the Templars: Reforged $29.99 954 93% 29k $858k (exactly $858,314) Revolution Software Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.