Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Life Sim?

Life Sim + Conspiracy

Only 12 developers shipped a Conspiracy Life Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Photomaly, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×570 the market median. Revenue is up 405% on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 405% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $6.1k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,090)
Top 25% $110k (exactly $110,176)
Top 5% $271k (exactly $270,932)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 405% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,426 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fetish Locator Week One older $9.99 2,418 84% 73k $725k (exactly $724,675) ViNovella Games
Photomaly $6.99 1,292 89% 39k $271k (exactly $270,932) Revira Interactive
CUCKOLD SIMULATOR: Life as a Beta Male Cuck $4.99 1,680 93% 50k $251k (exactly $251,496) Team SNEED
I Am Your President older $14.99 263 66% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) President
Shale Hill Secrets $14.99 245 80% 7.4k $110k (exactly $110,176) Love-Joint
Booth: A Dystopian Adventure older $9.99 354 88% 11k $106k (exactly $106,094) Guanpeng Chen
The Horrorscope: Fatal Awakening older $1.99 413 93% 12k $25k (exactly $24,656) Randumb Studios
The State of Nowhere $19.99 26 88% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Anomaly Works
Animaly Bar: NO HUMANITY! $4.99 98 90% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) Domnaier
Gobby McGobblenutz Presents - The Questionably Quirky Quiz Show older $1.99 140 98% 4.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,358) Randumb Studios
Symptoms of Infection · EA $3.50 58 89% 1.7k $6.1k (exactly $6,090) ORB Research & Broadcasting
ToDo LisT 783 $5.99 12 75% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Rainy City Productions
Legacy of Ancestors · EA $6.99 6 33% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) 命运测试
The Tavern Tales: Medieval Simulator · EA $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Flash Ray Games
Gatekeeper Simulator: Inner Circle $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Revolt Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.