Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Arcade game?

Arcade + Conspiracy

Of 22 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $35k, ×74 the market median. Revenue is up 1345% on the market; 26 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1345% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $3.6k → $119 → $178 → $719 → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $35,331)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 77
Announced 26
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1345% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comedy, 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M Alex Jones: NWO Wars 2024 · $930k Budget Cuts Ultimate 2023 · $66k The Biggleboss Incident 2025 · $45k Deep Space Exploitation 2025 · $35k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Alex Jones: NWO Wars older $17.76 1,745 92% 52k $930k (exactly $929,736) NWO Wars Team
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
The Biggleboss Incident $7.99 188 92% 5.6k $45k (exactly $45,064) BUNKWORKS
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
The Experiment older $1.99 121 65% 3.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,224) Carrot Studios
Operation: Pinkeye older $9.99 21 71% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Stormplay
REDSIDE episode 1 older $7.99 25 64% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Energy Milk
They Came From the Sky 2 older $9.99 16 75% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) FobTi interactive
GOVNOVOZ $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) KaiserGames
Bad Goys $4.99 11 72% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Silvercrest Studios
Dino Genesis · EA $6.99 7 71% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) 98 REDD GAMES
1964 Operation Velvet Twins $5.99 8 87% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) SEEP
Royal Goldenbeak and the Curse of Snowy Island $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Outside the Zoo
Highway Noir $11.99 2 50% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Archangel Softworks
Diceeee $7.99 3 33% 90 $719 (exactly $719) packnrollgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.