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Should I ship a Conspiracy Interactive Fiction?
Interactive Fiction + Conspiracy
Of 61 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×678 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 169 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $148 (exactly $148) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $7.8k (exactly $7,794) |
| Top 5% | $322k (exactly $321,985) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 61 |
| Released games | 184 |
| Announced | 169 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Investigation, Adventure, Puzzle
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 9,038 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + VampiresFair
- + SportsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + PiratesFair
- + DrivingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Board GameFair
- + SnowFair
- + BuildingFair
Comparable games
Pentiment 2022 · $5.5M 
The Case of the Golden Idol 2022 · $5.3M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Far Away 2021 · $3.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | The Case of the Golden Idol | older | $17.99 | 9,794 97% | 294k | $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) | Color Gray Games |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
 | BURIED STARS | older | $39.99 | 2,117 83% | 64k | $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) | LINE Games Corporation |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | Tails Noir | older | $24.99 | 2,592 66% | 78k | $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) | Eggnut |
 | Contradiction: Spot The Liar | older | $12.99 | 2,838 94% | 85k | $1.1M (exactly $1,105,969) | Baggy Cat Ltd. |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games | |
 | Confidential Killings - A Detective Game | $14.99 | 716 76% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,985) | BRANE, Lorenzo Boni | |
 | Lost Wiki: Kozlovka | $4.99 | 1,634 96% | 49k | $245k (exactly $244,610) | yattytheman | |
 | Radiolight | $14.99 | 414 90% | 12k | $186k (exactly $186,176) | Krystof Knesl | |
 | Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room | $12.99 | 191 81% | 5.7k | $74k (exactly $74,433) | mc2games | |
 | Moves Of The Diamond Hand | · EA | $19.99 | 105 100% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Cosmo D Studios |
 | Mars Vice | $24.99 | 70 97% | 2.1k | $52k (exactly $52,479) | Rho Labyrinths GmbH | |
 | Call of the Golden Valley | $19.99 | 43 86% | 1.3k | $26k (exactly $25,787) | O'Saurus Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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