Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Management game?

Management + Conspiracy

Only 14 developers shipped a Conspiracy Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Photomaly, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×431 the market median. Revenue is up 550% on the market; 43 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 550% on the market, 43 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $293k → $4.3k → $5.4k → $2.7k → $9.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 5% $271k (exactly $270,932)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 39
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 550% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Resource Management, Hidden Object
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, First-Person, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Happy's Humble Burger Farm older $19.99 1,704 93% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,889) Scythe Dev Team
Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 older $24.99 721 86% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Maestro Cinetik
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
The Fabulous Fear Machine older $17.99 542 89% 16k $293k (exactly $292,517) Fictiorama Studios
Photomaly $6.99 1,292 89% 39k $271k (exactly $270,932) Revira Interactive
I Am Your President older $14.99 263 66% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) President
LAN Party Adventures $14.99 93 89% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) LEAP Game Studios
Rough Justice: '84 older $19.99 67 64% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) Gamma Minus
REPLAY BOYS older $9.99 120 94% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,964) Split Narrative Inc.
The State of Nowhere $19.99 26 88% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Anomaly Works
Merchants of Rosewall $19.99 19 63% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Big Blue Sky Games
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
My Liege $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) SugoiPenguin Gaming
Red Supreme $7.99 15 100% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Dormouse
Rescue Team: Lights. Camera. Outer Space $6.99 13 76% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Game Mixer
Rescue Team: Phantom Crisis $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Game Mixer
The Tavern Tales: Medieval Simulator · EA $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Flash Ray Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.