Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy

Only 15 developers shipped a Conspiracy Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $8.3M, ×17618 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $239 → $6.3k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $78,248)
Top 5% $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 33
Announced 33
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $8.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter 2025 · $8.4M Chains of Freedom 2025 · $390k 侠落：百花杀尽 2026 · $192k To Hell With The Ugly 2023 · $80k Hermit and Pig 2026 · $78k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
侠落：百花杀尽 $12.99 493 70% 15k $192k (exactly $192,122) 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司
To Hell With The Ugly older $19.99 133 87% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) La Poule Noire, ARTE France
Hermit and Pig $14.99 174 98% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Heavy Lunch Studio LLC
Dangerous High School Girls in Trouble!™ older $19.99 102 71% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Mousechief
יום פתוח (Open Day) older $5.99 256 98% 7.7k $46k (exactly $46,003) Rafael Ben-Ari
Cairn: Mathair's Curse $19.99 48 89% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Ross McRitchie
Breakthru $14.99 54 50% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Jan Buta
Tortured Hearts - Or How I Saved The Universe. Again. older $24.99 30 83% 900 $22k (exactly $22,491) Teleport Games
Granser - Act 1 $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Steve Gal
蚀界档案 $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) 深圳市创源互娱科技有限公司
Dream City Fugitive $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) DC Inspiration
Critternauts $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Gergo V

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.