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Should I ship a Conspiracy Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Conspiracy
Of 35 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 85 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 160% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) |
| Top 5% | $63k (exactly $62,968) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 35 |
| Released games | 100 |
| Announced | 85 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 685 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition 2007 · $2.9M 
Solium Infernum 2024 · $1.9M 
Happy's Humble Burger Farm 2021 · $1.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition | older | $6.99 | 13,740 94% | 412k | $2.9M (exactly $2,881,278) | Ion Storm |
| | Solium Infernum | older | $39.99 | 1,571 88% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) | League of Geeks |
| | Happy's Humble Burger Farm | older | $19.99 | 1,704 93% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,021,889) | Scythe Dev Team |
 | NUTS | older | $24.99 | 884 88% | 27k | $663k (exactly $662,735) | Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi |
 | Deus Ex: Invisible War | older | $6.99 | 2,199 57% | 66k | $461k (exactly $461,130) | Ion Storm |
 | CaseCracker2 | older | $11.99 | 759 90% | 23k | $273k (exactly $273,012) | BlackRobe |
 | Booth: A Dystopian Adventure | older | $9.99 | 354 88% | 11k | $106k (exactly $106,094) | Guanpeng Chen |
 | Defending Lydia Collier | · EA older | $19.99 | 130 88% | 3.9k | $78k (exactly $77,961) | White Phantom Games |
 | PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION | $13.99 | 178 87% | 5.3k | $75k (exactly $74,707) | Banana Hardsoft | |
 | Moves Of The Diamond Hand | · EA | $19.99 | 105 100% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Cosmo D Studios |
 | Mars Vice | $24.99 | 70 97% | 2.1k | $52k (exactly $52,479) | Rho Labyrinths GmbH | |
 | DETECTIVE - Rainy night | $10.99 | 80 70% | 2.4k | $26k (exactly $26,376) | k148 Game Studio | |
 | Cyberscape | $14.99 | 43 93% | 1.3k | $19k (exactly $19,337) | AtomicTorch Studio | |
 | These Darker Tides | $7.99 | 76 90% | 2.3k | $18k (exactly $18,217) | Pixel Drip Games | |
 | Things Too Ugly | $7.99 | 47 89% | 1.4k | $11k (exactly $11,266) | Professor Space Games | |
 | Void Future: Hacking Protocol | $14.99 | 17 88% | 510 | $7.6k (exactly $7,645) | RVL Interactive | |
 | Legs Wide Open | $19.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) | SinVR | |
 | Symptoms of Infection | · EA | $3.50 | 58 89% | 1.7k | $6.1k (exactly $6,090) | ORB Research & Broadcasting |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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