Do I ship it?

Do I ship it?

A field guide to what happened to everyone who shipped your idea. 129,728 Steam games observed nightly; every number opens to the specimens behind it.

Odds, not permission.
Job Simulator + Inventory Management
Fig. 1 · one niche among 16,455

Three ways in

Entry I · Undecided

What should I ship?

Set an effort ceiling. Niches come back ranked by odds, with the games that prove them.

effort ≤ 5 of 10
5 · real systems or entry 3D
Entry II · An idea

Should I ship this?

Describe it in a line. We map it to Steam tags and open the specimen card.

GamesJob SimulatorJob Simulator + Inventory Management

Specimen of the day · Job Simulator + Inventory Management · observed

Should I ship an Inventory Management Job Simulator?

Job Simulator + Inventory Management

Of 69 developers who shipped an Inventory Management Job Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×33 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $2.6k. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 62 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.4 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 32.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 62 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $15k → $52k → $18k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Job Simulator + Inventory Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Median $15k (exactly $15,467)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $57,768)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,024)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 83
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Rising · observed

Rising

  1. Racing + SnowPoor odds16 devs · median $3.6k · top 5% $9.6M · 23 announced
  2. JRPG + Beat 'em upPoor odds13 devs · median $1.9k · top 5% $2.4M · 15 announced
  3. Party-Based RPG + ZombiesPoor odds18 devs · median $450 · top 5% $685k · 24 announced
  4. Combat + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $1.4k · top 5% $1.0M · 28 announced
  5. Sandbox + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $17k · top 5% $2.4M · 18 announced
All risers →
Death list · observed

Death list

  1. Battle Royale + FuturisticDeadfewer than 5 developers44 announced
  2. MMORPG + 3D PlatformerDeadfewer than 5 developers43 announced
  3. Battle Royale + Looter ShooterDeadfewer than 5 developers38 announced
  4. MMORPG + Strategy RPGDeadfewer than 5 developers37 announced
  5. Co-op + Visual NovelDeadfewer than 5 developers35 announced
The whole list →