Games › Exploration › Exploration + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Exploration game?
Exploration + Conspiracy
Of 118 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 279 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×529 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 279 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,389) |
| Top 5% | $251k (exactly $251,496) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 118 |
| Released games | 333 |
| Announced | 279 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,891 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 279 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M 
Pentiment 2022 · $5.5M 
The Case of the Golden Idol 2022 · $5.3M 
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream 2025 · $2.9M 
The Rise of the Golden Idol 2024 · $2.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition | older | $19.99 | 23,875 80% | 716k | $14M (exactly $14,317,837) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | The Case of the Golden Idol | older | $17.99 | 9,794 97% | 294k | $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) | Color Gray Games |
| | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
| | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication | older | $24.99 | 2,493 93% | 75k | $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT |
 | Squirrel with a Gun | older | $19.99 | 3,112 86% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) | Dee Dee Creations LLC |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Liberation HD | older | $19.99 | 3,051 54% | 92k | $1.8M (exactly $1,829,685) | Ubisoft Sofia |
 | Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse | older | $24.99 | 1,923 89% | 58k | $1.4M (exactly $1,441,673) | Revolution Software Ltd |
 | Rollerdrome | older | $29.99 | 1,486 91% | 45k | $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) | Roll7 |
 | Broken Sword - Shadow of the Templars: Reforged | $29.99 | 954 93% | 29k | $858k (exactly $858,314) | Revolution Software Ltd | |
 | Agent 64: Spies Never Die | $21.64 | 863 86% | 26k | $560k (exactly $560,260) | Replicant D6 | |
 | Butcher's Creek | $9.99 | 1,539 94% | 46k | $461k (exactly $461,238) | David Szymanski | |
 | CUCKOLD SIMULATOR: Life as a Beta Male Cuck | $4.99 | 1,680 93% | 50k | $251k (exactly $251,496) | Team SNEED | |
 | Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow | $19.99 | 340 75% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | Maze Theory | |
 | 侠落：百花杀尽 | $12.99 | 493 70% | 15k | $192k (exactly $192,122) | 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司 | |
 | Radiolight | $14.99 | 414 90% | 12k | $186k (exactly $186,176) | Krystof Knesl | |
 | Broken Reality 2000 | $14.99 | 371 76% | 11k | $167k (exactly $166,839) | Dynamic Media Triad |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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