Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Conspiracy

Only 19 developers shipped a Conspiracy Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 侠落:百花杀尽, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $4.6k → $0 → $3.0k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $192k (exactly $192,122)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 37
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Lore-Rich, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 958 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  7. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + Martial ArtsPoor odds28 devs · median $18k · 45 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 older $24.99 721 86% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Maestro Cinetik
The Fabulous Fear Machine older $17.99 542 89% 16k $293k (exactly $292,517) Fictiorama Studios
侠落:百花杀尽 $12.99 493 70% 15k $192k (exactly $192,122) 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
Cyber Ops older $14.99 108 42% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Octeto Studios
Hero Roy's Wedding older $6.99 230 74% 6.9k $48k (exactly $48,231) SwordRP5
Waiting For The Raven older $14.99 61 77% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Musclebird
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
My Liege $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) SugoiPenguin Gaming
Climber Girl $7.99 19 36% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) AlterLab Development
蚀界档案 $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) 深圳市创源互娱科技有限公司
Senatus $4.99 16 81% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Slashware Interactive, Megalevel
Legacy of Ancestors · EA $6.99 6 33% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) 命运测试
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.