Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Conspiracy

Of 28 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $46k, ×74 the market median. Revenue is up 1655% on the market; 49 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1655% on the market, 49 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $599 → $7.2k → $8.5k → $599 → $7.0k → $24k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,581)
Top 5% $46k (exactly $46,401)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 81
Announced 49
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1655% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,338 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $46k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication older $24.99 2,493 93% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Happy's Humble Burger Farm older $19.99 1,704 93% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,889) Scythe Dev Team
Butcher's Creek $9.99 1,539 94% 46k $461k (exactly $461,238) David Szymanski
Saturnalia older $29.99 116 91% 3.5k $104k (exactly $104,365) Santa Ragione
Subversive Memories $11.99 129 96% 3.9k $46k (exactly $46,401) Southward Studio
Heavy Metal Death Can $17.50 76 92% 2.3k $40k (exactly $39,900) Krufs Productions
NEDRA $14.99 76 76% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) Davit Andreasyan
Paradise: Musubi $14.99 73 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) PIL/SLASH
The Fear Business $9.99 104 93% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) Tomás Esconjaureguy
Dark Notes older $7.99 108 75% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) HeartBeat Plus
Barking from the Dark $3.99 197 88% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) shoftArt
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Animaly Bar: NO HUMANITY! $4.99 98 90% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) Domnaier
Saborus $14.99 24 58% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) High Room Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.