Games › RPG › RPG + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy RPG?
RPG + Conspiracy
Of 58 developers who shipped a Conspiracy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 192 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×400 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 192 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,217) |
| Top 5% | $251k (exactly $251,496) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 58 |
| Released games | 179 |
| Announced | 192 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 12,452 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. Nearly all of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 192 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M 
Assassin's Creed® Revelations 2011 · $12M 
Lost Judgment 2022 · $9.0M 
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter 2025 · $8.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood | older | $19.99 | 24,958 88% | 749k | $15M (exactly $14,967,313) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed® Revelations | older | $19.99 | 19,244 83% | 577k | $12M (exactly $11,540,627) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Lost Judgment | older | $39.99 | 7,461 93% | 224k | $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) | RGG Studio |
| | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
 | Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition | older | $6.99 | 13,740 94% | 412k | $2.9M (exactly $2,881,278) | Ion Storm |
 | Contradiction: Spot The Liar | older | $12.99 | 2,838 94% | 85k | $1.1M (exactly $1,105,969) | Baggy Cat Ltd. |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Swansong | older | $49.99 | 561 65% | 17k | $841k (exactly $841,332) | Big Bad Wolf |
 | CUCKOLD SIMULATOR: Life as a Beta Male Cuck | $4.99 | 1,680 93% | 50k | $251k (exactly $251,496) | Team SNEED | |
 | Lost Wiki: Kozlovka | $4.99 | 1,634 96% | 49k | $245k (exactly $244,610) | yattytheman | |
 | 侠落：百花杀尽 | $12.99 | 493 70% | 15k | $192k (exactly $192,122) | 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司 | |
 | Black Gold - Shining Town | $13.99 | 255 80% | 7.7k | $107k (exactly $107,024) | Morexingame | |
 | Hermit and Pig | $14.99 | 174 98% | 5.2k | $78k (exactly $78,248) | Heavy Lunch Studio LLC | |
 | PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION | $13.99 | 178 87% | 5.3k | $75k (exactly $74,707) | Banana Hardsoft | |
 | Moves Of The Diamond Hand | · EA | $19.99 | 105 100% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Cosmo D Studios |
 | Gnomes and Knights | $4.99 | 372 77% | 11k | $56k (exactly $55,688) | Terletski Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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