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Should I ship a Conspiracy Incremental game?
Incremental + Conspiracy
Of 21 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×606 the market median. Revenue is up 750% on the market; 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $3.4k (exactly $3,409) |
| Top 5% | $288k (exactly $288,012) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 34 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 750% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Hidden Object, Physics
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 10,001 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
Berry Bury Berry 2026 · $2.1M 
Project P.I.T.T. 2026 · $288k 
I'm on Observation Duty 8 2025 · $85k 
Dark Notes 2024 · $26k 
Trophies: A Corruption Tale 2025 · EA · $21k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Berry Bury Berry | $7.99 | 8,619 98% | 259k | $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) | Get(Color) Games | |
| | Project P.I.T.T. | $9.99 | 961 78% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Froke | |
| | I'm on Observation Duty 8 | $11.99 | 237 95% | 7.1k | $85k (exactly $85,249) | Notovia, Dreamloop Games | |
| | Dark Notes | older | $7.99 | 108 75% | 3.2k | $26k (exactly $25,888) | HeartBeat Plus |
| | Trophies: A Corruption Tale | · EA | $10.99 | 63 88% | 1.9k | $21k (exactly $20,771) | roasDev, CsCDev |
 | The State of Nowhere | $19.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $16k (exactly $15,592) | Anomaly Works | |
 | Uninstall Simulator | $2.99 | 38 84% | 1.1k | $3.4k (exactly $3,409) | Thirdpark Games | |
 | Polda 5 | older | $3.99 | 27 88% | 810 | $3.2k (exactly $3,232) | Zima software |
 | Satan's Puzzle 2 | older | $1.99 | 40 95% | 1.2k | $2.4k (exactly $2,388) | Silvestre Gore Art |
 | Fungal Colony Simulator | older | $2.99 | 24 66% | 720 | $2.2k (exactly $2,153) | Skylor Beck |
 | APPLECALYPSE | $2.99 | 23 95% | 690 | $2.1k (exactly $2,063) | Pupicrap | |
 | Lhama Clicker | $4.99 | 13 69% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | Clicker | |
 | The Boston Breeder | $12.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | LostWorks | |
 | Hentai Clicker: Lily is streaming | $2.99 | 17 70% | 510 | $1.5k (exactly $1,525) | Sexy Baguette Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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