Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Conspiracy

Only 14 developers shipped a Conspiracy 3D Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SHUTEN ORDER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1700 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $1.6k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,805)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 37
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,028 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $840, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
Broken Sword 3 - the Sleeping Dragon (2003) older $5.99 750 55% 23k $135k (exactly $134,775) Revolution Software Ltd
Broken Sword 4 - the Angel of Death (2006) older $5.99 456 43% 14k $82k (exactly $81,943) Sumo Digital Ltd
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
Unearthed: Trail of Ibn Battuta - Episode 1 - Gold Edition older $4.99 481 60% 14k $72k (exactly $72,006) Semaphore
Saborus $14.99 24 58% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) High Room Studio
Dystopian Pet Simulator · EA $5.99 49 93% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) dinca.team
Meme Run 2 older $4.20 67 85% 2.0k $8.4k (exactly $8,442) Jordan Schuetz
Реальная Смута older $0.99 101 93% 3.0k $3.0k (exactly $3,000) Talanta Net
Bad Goys $4.99 11 72% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Silvercrest Studios
Escape The Wojak GOTY $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Chungledown Max, Game Dev Guy
Chicken Strike®: Cluck Ops™ $1.99 14 42% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Bamboléo Games
異誕監視室 | Monativity Surveillance $2.99 9 44% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Coward_Watson
MMNANA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) EHG
Ascension: The Immortal Alchemist · EA $11.99 1 100% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Violet Flame Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.