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Should I ship a Conspiracy Roguelike?
Roguelike + Conspiracy
Only 15 developers shipped a Conspiracy Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Prime Monster, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×389 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,029) |
| Top 5% | $185k (exactly $184,708) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,054 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + VampiresFair
- + DogsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + IdlerFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
Comparable games
Prime Monster 2026 · $185k 
Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors 2023 · $125k 
Rina's Undercover Train Operation 2026 · $120k 
Gnomes and Knights 2024 · $56k 
StarCrawlers Chimera 2024 · $26k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Prime Monster | $19.99 | 308 83% | 9.2k | $185k (exactly $184,708) | Cavalier Game Studios | |
| | Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors | older | $3.99 | 1,045 94% | 31k | $125k (exactly $125,086) | Coby Dox, Chudd Howard |
| | Rina's Undercover Train Operation | $13.99 | 286 70% | 8.6k | $120k (exactly $120,034) | Metamorphose | |
| | Gnomes and Knights | $4.99 | 372 77% | 11k | $56k (exactly $55,688) | Terletski Games | |
| | StarCrawlers Chimera | older | $19.99 | 43 69% | 1.3k | $26k (exactly $25,787) | Juggernaut Games |
 | Seth | $12.99 | 36 77% | 1.1k | $14k (exactly $14,029) | Chaotic Games | |
 | Parasite | · EA older | $9.99 | 46 65% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $13,786) | StarInfidel |
 | Gobby McGobblenutz Presents: The Art of the Dad Joke: Chapter 1 | older | $1.99 | 162 91% | 4.9k | $9.7k (exactly $9,671) | Randumb Studios |
 | Cult Leader Simulator | $17.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | Nhneno | |
 | Chimera CUSTOM XG | · EA | $19.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $7.8k (exactly $7,796) | Volok Games |
 | Senatus | $4.99 | 16 81% | 480 | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) | Slashware Interactive, Megalevel | |
 | Diceeee | $7.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $719 (exactly $719) | packnrollgames | |
 | Wild Radio Flux | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | K Storm Studio Ltd | |
 | Agartha Survivors | $4.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Michael Blair |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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