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Should I ship a Conspiracy Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Conspiracy
Of 40 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×678 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 100 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) |
| Top 25% | $7.9k (exactly $7,913) |
| Top 5% | $322k (exactly $321,985) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 153 |
| Announced | 100 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,955 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. Nearly all of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
Pentiment 2022 · $5.5M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Far Away 2021 · $3.0M 
BURIED STARS 2021 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
| | BURIED STARS | older | $39.99 | 2,117 83% | 64k | $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) | LINE Games Corporation |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Fetish Locator Week One | older | $9.99 | 2,418 84% | 73k | $725k (exactly $724,675) | ViNovella Games |
 | Confidential Killings - A Detective Game | $14.99 | 716 76% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,985) | BRANE, Lorenzo Boni | |
 | Who Pressed Mute on Uncle Marcus? | older | $14.99 | 669 71% | 20k | $301k (exactly $300,849) | Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | Darker: Chapter 1 | $11.99 | 92 77% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,092) | Director Unknown | |
 | Paradise: Musubi | $14.99 | 73 98% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $32,828) | PIL/SLASH | |
 | Legacy of Subjugation | $14.99 | 34 97% | 1.0k | $15k (exactly $15,290) | Problematic Faves | |
 | A Death in the Red Light | $9.99 | 38 73% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | Mystery City Games BV | |
 | Fog of War: Book Two | · EA | $16.99 | 19 84% | 570 | $9.7k (exactly $9,684) | Story Machine Studios |
 | Cult Leader Simulator | $17.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | Nhneno | |
 | アルタイル号の殺人 | $10.99 | 24 87% | 720 | $7.9k (exactly $7,913) | orange |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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