Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Destruction game?

Destruction + Conspiracy

Only 9 developers shipped a Conspiracy Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deep Space Exploitation, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90, ×0.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 140% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $90 → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $45 (exactly $45)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $120 (exactly $120)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $35,331)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 25
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $120, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
I Am Your President older $14.99 263 66% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) President
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
Shadows Behind the Throne 2 older $7.99 47 76% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,266) Bobby Two Hands
Super-Patriota Simulator older $1.99 140 99% 4.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,358) Paranauê Ninja Games, Philosophical Sch… (Paranauê Ninja Games, Philosophical School of Games)
They Came From the Sky 2 older $9.99 16 75% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) FobTi interactive
The Boston Breeder $12.99 4 25% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) LostWorks
Fire Thief older $4.99 4 50% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Anthony Rietkerk
Randomlands older $0.99 6 100% 180 $178 (exactly $178) Atahan Öztürk
701病房 $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Shuo Xu
The S.H.O.W. $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) SGS
Mutational Loading $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Plexus Studio
Neo-Exodus: Last Bastion $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) GODev Games
Melancholy Lake - Camocipher12 Shorts $1.49 1 100% 30 $45 (exactly $45) Camocipher12
Cacotopia $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) StudyFun
Volcano Logistics $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GraveBell

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.