Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Strategy game?

Strategy + Conspiracy

Of 51 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 130 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×306 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 130 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 130 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $125k → $4.3k → $300 → $599 → $898 → $719 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,409)
Top 5% $192k (exactly $192,122)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 150
Announced 130
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Strategy RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,290 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Contradiction: Spot The Liar older $12.99 2,838 94% 85k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,969) Baggy Cat Ltd.
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 older $24.99 721 86% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Maestro Cinetik
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
The Fabulous Fear Machine older $17.99 542 89% 16k $293k (exactly $292,517) Fictiorama Studios
侠落:百花杀尽 $12.99 493 70% 15k $192k (exactly $192,122) 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司
Prime Monster $19.99 308 83% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Cavalier Game Studios
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Cult Leader Simulator $17.99 16 50% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Nhneno
Blackdoor $12.99 20 85% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) Static Signal
diffiCULT · EA $4.99 52 94% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Ouz Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.