Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Conspiracy

Of 63 developers who shipped a Conspiracy Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1065 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 175 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 175 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $599 → $2.4k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $657 → $599 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $669k (exactly $668,930)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 197
Announced 175
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 10,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $660, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition older $19.99 23,875 80% 716k $14M (exactly $14,317,837) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed® Revelations older $19.99 19,244 83% 577k $12M (exactly $11,540,627) Ubisoft Montreal
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication older $24.99 2,493 93% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Agent 64: Spies Never Die $21.64 863 86% 26k $560k (exactly $560,260) Replicant D6
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team
The Black Ice · EA $14.99 147 77% 4.4k $66k (exactly $66,106) RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.