Games › Open World › Open World + Conspiracy
Should I ship a Conspiracy Open World game?
Open World + Conspiracy
Only 13 developers shipped a Conspiracy Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $420, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 51 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $419 (exactly $419) |
| Top 25% | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 57 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Comic Book, Dark Comedy
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,017 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M 
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood 2011 · $15M 
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition 2008 · $14M 
Assassin's Creed® Revelations 2011 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood | older | $19.99 | 24,958 88% | 749k | $15M (exactly $14,967,313) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition | older | $19.99 | 23,875 80% | 716k | $14M (exactly $14,317,837) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed® Revelations | older | $19.99 | 19,244 83% | 577k | $12M (exactly $11,540,627) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Liberation HD | older | $19.99 | 3,051 54% | 92k | $1.8M (exactly $1,829,685) | Ubisoft Sofia |
 | NUTS | older | $24.99 | 884 88% | 27k | $663k (exactly $662,735) | Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi |
 | Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game | older | $19.99 | 970 79% | 29k | $582k (exactly $581,709) | Avalanche Software |
 | Else Heart.Break() | older | $24.99 | 347 78% | 10k | $260k (exactly $260,146) | Erik Svedäng, El Huervo / Niklas Åkerbl… (Erik Svedäng, El Huervo / Niklas Åkerblad, Tobias Sjögren, Oscar "Ratvader" Rydelius, Johannes Gotlén) |
 | A Death in the Red Light | $9.99 | 38 73% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | Mystery City Games BV | |
 | Inky Blinky Bob | $9.99 | 33 81% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | ELDELIC GAMES | |
 | INVISIBLE FLOW | $9.99 | 16 81% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | DOGHADHOUSE | |
 | LANDED | $5.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $719 (exactly $719) | Delighted Games LLC | |
 | The World Ends in Ohio | $3.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | PDS Games | |
 | MMNANA | $6.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | EHG | |
 | My Local Bee Cult | $1.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $358 (exactly $358) | SlimeInSpace | |
 | Dream City Fugitive | $7.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | DC Inspiration | |
 | Splimbo City | · EA | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | Splimbo Works |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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