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Should I ship a Conspiracy PvP game?
PvP + Conspiracy
Only 5 developers shipped a Conspiracy PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.5k against a market of $1.5k. 32 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,734) |
| Top 5% | $101k (exactly $100,750) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 5 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 70% positive over 5,937 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 32 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | First Class Trouble | older | $14.99 | 3,103 79% | 93k | $1.4M (exactly $1,395,419) | Invisible Walls |
| | XIII | older | $19.99 | 1,374 39% | 41k | $824k (exactly $823,988) | PlayMagic |
| | Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game | older | $19.99 | 970 79% | 29k | $582k (exactly $581,709) | Avalanche Software |
| | Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends | $19.99 | 168 72% | 5.0k | $101k (exactly $100,750) | Huracan Studio | |
| | Blueblood Arena | · EA | $8.99 | 88 96% | 2.6k | $24k (exactly $23,734) | Team Blueblood |
| | Trust No Bunny | older | $5.99 | 109 93% | 3.3k | $20k (exactly $19,587) | Friendly Pixel, Inc. |
| | ILLUMINATI | older | $9.99 | 46 60% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $13,786) | RadioFree.Net |
| | 正宗台湾十六张麻将3 | older | $6.99 | 47 63% | 1.4k | $9.9k (exactly $9,856) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT |
| | Political Punchers Parody Arena | older | $7.99 | 15 80% | 450 | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) | GORDO GAMERS |
| | The Masquerade | $4.99 | 17 100% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | Chewa | |
| | Dice Battles Magnum Opus | $6.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Aidan K | |
| | Operation: Black Genesis - The Immortal Trials | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | IL Labs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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