Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy PvP game?

PvP + Conspiracy

Only 5 developers shipped a Conspiracy PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.5k against a market of $1.5k. 32 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 32 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for PvP + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,734)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,750)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 28
Announced 32
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 5,937 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 32 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
First Class Trouble older $14.99 3,103 79% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,395,419) Invisible Walls
XIII older $19.99 1,374 39% 41k $824k (exactly $823,988) PlayMagic
Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game older $19.99 970 79% 29k $582k (exactly $581,709) Avalanche Software
Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends $19.99 168 72% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Huracan Studio
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
Trust No Bunny older $5.99 109 93% 3.3k $20k (exactly $19,587) Friendly Pixel, Inc.
ILLUMINATI older $9.99 46 60% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) RadioFree.Net
正宗台湾十六张麻将3 older $6.99 47 63% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Political Punchers Parody Arena older $7.99 15 80% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) GORDO GAMERS
The Masquerade $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Chewa
Dice Battles Magnum Opus $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Aidan K
Operation: Black Genesis - The Immortal Trials $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IL Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.