Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Platformer?

Platformer + Conspiracy

Only 16 developers shipped a Conspiracy Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ikarus Parkour, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×6.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $75k, ×160 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 37 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 37 announced, ×6.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $59 → $599 → $836 → $7.8k → $1.6k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,992)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 54
Announced 37
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 2D Platformer, Action-Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 361 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
Oddworld: Soulstorm Enhanced Edition older $39.99 504 65% 15k $605k (exactly $604,649) Oddworld Inhabitants
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
Unearthed: Trail of Ibn Battuta - Episode 1 - Gold Edition older $4.99 481 60% 14k $72k (exactly $72,006) Semaphore
SenS · EA older $17.99 48 77% 1.4k $26k (exactly $25,906) Limasse Five
Sacre Bleu $14.99 46 82% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Hildring Studio Inc
Antro $14.99 42 92% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Gatera Studio
ColorBlend FX: Desaturation older $15.99 21 90% 630 $10k (exactly $10,074) Pi-Dev Bulgaria
Chimera CUSTOM XG · EA $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Volok Games
Crystal Gaiden Origins $11.99 17 94% 510 $6.1k (exactly $6,115) Onipunks
Bad Goys $4.99 11 72% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Silvercrest Studios
Xeno Rangers $11.99 4 100% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) 9000 Legends
1964 Operation Velvet Twins $5.99 8 87% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) SEEP
Escape The Wojak GOTY $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Chungledown Max, Game Dev Guy
Chicken Strike®: Cluck Ops™ $1.99 14 42% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Bamboléo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.