Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics game?

Physics

Of 3,323 developers who shipped a Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,387 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×497 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 5,387 games are announced against 2,033 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 5,387 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,323
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $748 → $807 → $836 → $897 → $898 → $599 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,323
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,211)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $312,196)
Developers, 2 yr 3,323
Released games 9,675
Announced 5,387
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,034,398 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 1,684 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,387 games are announced against 2,033 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Physics

252 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Physics + Walking Simulator Poor odds $898 148 devs
  2. Physics + Magic Poor odds $898 92 devs
  3. 3D Fighter + Physics Poor odds $898 69 devs
  4. Physics + Card Game Poor odds $898 27 devs
  5. Sports + Physics Poor odds $897 377 devs
  6. FPS + Physics Poor odds $897 226 devs
  7. Physics + Strategy RPG Poor odds $897 18 devs
  8. Physics + Time Manipulation Poor odds $882 48 devs
  9. Space Sim + Physics Poor odds $839 95 devs
  10. Physics + Dungeon Crawler Poor odds $809 61 devs
  11. God Game + Physics Poor odds $809 34 devs
  12. Grand Strategy + Physics Poor odds $809 12 devs
  13. Physics + Visual Novel Poor odds $807 19 devs
  14. Action-Adventure + Physics Poor odds $750 542 devs
  15. Physics + Dystopian Poor odds $750 52 devs
  16. Racing + Physics Poor odds $748 363 devs
  17. Physics + Tanks Poor odds $748 16 devs
  18. Physics + Archery Poor odds $748 15 devs
  19. Action RTS + Physics Poor odds $748 13 devs
  20. Physics + Nature Poor odds $732 281 devs
  21. Combat + Physics Poor odds $719 399 devs
  22. Physics + Choices Matter Poor odds $719 162 devs
  23. RTS + Physics Poor odds $719 34 devs
  24. Football (American) + Physics Poor odds $719 11 devs
  25. Creature Collector + Physics Poor odds $718 37 devs
  26. Boxing + Physics Poor odds $718 14 devs
  27. Physics + Mars Poor odds $718 9 devs
  28. Physics + Time Attack Poor odds $674 38 devs
  29. Action + Physics Poor odds $657 1,691 devs
  30. Shooter + Physics Poor odds $657 330 devs
  31. Physics + Fantasy Poor odds $629 278 devs
  32. Physics + Supernatural Poor odds $629 42 devs
  33. Physics + Music Poor odds $629 27 devs
  34. Physics + Gothic Poor odds $628 15 devs
  35. Physics + Escape Room Poor odds $600 13 devs
  36. Physics + Strategy Poor odds $599 517 devs
  37. Physics + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 429 devs
  38. PvE + Physics Poor odds $599 351 devs
  39. Physics + Beat 'em up Poor odds $599 56 devs
  40. 2D Fighter + Physics Poor odds $599 54 devs
  41. Spectacle fighter + Physics Poor odds $599 42 devs
  42. Motocross + Physics Poor odds $599 14 devs
  43. Physics + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $598 54 devs
  44. Arena Shooter + Physics Poor odds $597 113 devs
  45. Parkour + Physics Poor odds $594 301 devs
  46. Physics + Zombies Poor odds $539 62 devs
  47. Physics + Space Poor odds $538 289 devs
  48. Physics + Mythology Poor odds $479 24 devs
  49. Boomer Shooter + Physics Poor odds $450 36 devs
  50. Action RPG + Physics Poor odds $449 65 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.