Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Physics

Of 69 developers who shipped a Physics 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 126 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 126 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $208 → $597 → $1.5k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $2.9k → $179 (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 5% $246k (exactly $245,618)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 227
Announced 126
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Fighting
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 81,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M Party Animals 2023 · $34M Gang Beasts 2017 · $33M Half Sword 2026 · EA · $21M Hellish Quart 2021 · EA · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
MageQuit older $14.99 1,032 94% 31k $464k (exactly $464,090) Bowlcut Studios
Monster: Titan's Playground · EA $29.99 273 91% 8.2k $246k (exactly $245,618) Stellar Knights
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Pull Stay $16.99 125 97% 3.8k $64k (exactly $63,712) Nito Souji
Elements Divided $14.99 137 86% 4.1k $62k (exactly $61,609) Loco Motion Devs
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.