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Should I ship a Magic Physics game?
Physics + Magic
Of 92 developers who shipped a Magic Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2380 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 215 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 92 |
| Released games | 290 |
| Announced | 215 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,190 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince 2019 · $11M 
Trine 2: Complete Story 2013 · $9.2M 
Trine Enchanted Edition 2009 · $5.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince | older | $29.99 | 11,712 88% | 351k | $11M (exactly $10,537,286) | Frozenbyte |
| | Trine 2: Complete Story | older | $19.99 | 15,273 95% | 458k | $9.2M (exactly $9,159,218) | Frozenbyte |
| | Trine Enchanted Edition | older | $14.99 | 12,843 95% | 385k | $5.8M (exactly $5,775,497) | Frozenbyte |
 | Trine 3: The Artifacts of Power | older | $21.99 | 7,301 63% | 219k | $4.8M (exactly $4,816,470) | Frozenbyte |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | Fatekeeper | · EA | $9.99 | 10,605 80% | 318k | $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) | Paraglacial |
 | Cat Mail Co. | $14.99 | 6,289 92% | 189k | $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) | Maracas Studio | |
 | YAPYAP | $9.99 | 8,385 83% | 252k | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) | Maison Bap | |
 | Eternal Strands | $29.99 | 1,661 87% | 50k | $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) | Yellow Brick Games | |
 | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
 | Lay of the Land | $19.99 | 1,190 79% | 36k | $714k (exactly $713,643) | Southern Cross Interactive | |
 | Trench Tales | · EA | $24.99 | 601 69% | 18k | $451k (exactly $450,570) | Talking Drums |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
 | Castle Craft | $19.99 | 480 82% | 14k | $288k (exactly $287,856) | Twin Earth |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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