Do I ship it?

Games › 2D Fighter › 2D Fighter + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Physics

Of 54 developers who shipped a Physics 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×30 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 71 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $748 → $240 → $1.1k → $599 → $748 → $479 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 140
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 432 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stick Fight: The Game 2017 · $15M Bopl Battle 2023 · $6.5M ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M SpiderHeck 2022 · $1.8M Wanba Warriors 2020 · $350k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
Bopl Battle older $9.99 21,530 97% 646k $6.5M (exactly $6,452,541) Johan Grönvall
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Wanba Warriors older $4.99 2,339 90% 70k $350k (exactly $350,148) Wanba Studio
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Treadnauts older $14.99 111 90% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Topstitch Games
David. older $1.99 581 79% 17k $35k (exactly $34,686) Fermenter Games
Ritter & Rotwein $12.49 86 68% 2.6k $32k (exactly $32,224) Hurdy-Gurdy Games
末代侠客 older $3.99 203 84% 6.1k $24k (exactly $24,299) 夜葬半歌
Oblin Party $7.99 85 91% 2.6k $20k (exactly $20,374) Tellus Games
We Could Be Heroes $14.99 42 85% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) CebCode Games
CPU Invaders - 3i Atlas $4.99 77 98% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,527) Microblast Games
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula
Bounce 2 $9.99 35 85% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Digital Joy Games
Wink Out · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Clevergence Games
Which Way Up: Galaxy Games $14.99 16 100% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Turtle Flip Studio
Battle Squares $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Feesh Studio
Sugar Shatter $12.99 8 100% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) SpicyTrain Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.