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Should I ship a Physics Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Physics + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 54 developers who shipped a Physics Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×202 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 96 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $148 (exactly $148) |
|---|---|
| Median | $598 (exactly $598) |
| Top 25% | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) |
| Top 5% | $127k (exactly $127,136) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 54 |
| Released games | 149 |
| Announced | 96 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Sandbox
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 20,874 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
People Playground 2019 · $89M 
Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M 
Out of Ore 2022 · $3.0M 
Wrench 2018 · EA · $1.7M 
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator 2020 · $933k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | People Playground | older | $9.99 | 298,158 98% | 8.9M | $89M (exactly $89,357,953) | mestiez |
| | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
| | Out of Ore | older | $24.99 | 3,978 85% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) | North Modding Company AB |
| | Wrench | · EA older | $29.99 | 1,898 84% | 57k | $1.7M (exactly $1,707,631) | Missing Digit |
| | UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator | older | $19.99 | 1,556 78% | 47k | $933k (exactly $933,133) | IndieMax |
 | ALTF4 | older | $2.99 | 9,452 80% | 284k | $848k (exactly $847,844) | PUMPKIM |
 | Regular Human Workshop | older | $9.99 | 1,201 89% | 36k | $360k (exactly $359,940) | Dead Joker |
 | OverDrift Festival | older | $9.99 | 1,103 79% | 33k | $331k (exactly $330,569) | OverDrift Crew |
 | Paper Beast | older | $19.99 | 529 94% | 16k | $317k (exactly $317,241) | Pixel Reef |
 | Fictorum | older | $9.99 | 1,034 78% | 31k | $310k (exactly $309,890) | Scraping Bottom Games |
 | Reach | $29.99 | 244 66% | 7.3k | $220k (exactly $219,527) | nDreams Elevation | |
 | Pirates VR: Jolly Roger | $19.99 | 212 76% | 6.4k | $127k (exactly $127,136) | Split Light Studio | |
 | Content King | $11.99 | 293 95% | 8.8k | $105k (exactly $105,392) | Usurper Studios | |
 | Meco Rocket Simulator | · EA | $49.69 | 15 80% | 450 | $22k (exactly $22,360) | Loren Aerospace |
 | Drunkard Simulator | · EA | $14.99 | 46 34% | 1.4k | $21k (exactly $20,686) | O.S.D. |
 | SPHERE ROLLER | $49.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $16k (exactly $16,497) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Lustful Fingers | $9.99 | 47 70% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | Predict | |
 | WorldDrive: Real Open-World Driving Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 17 35% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | AJ Simulation & Engineering |
 | VR Naughty | $4.99 | 67 38% | 2.0k | $10k (exactly $10,030) | CTM |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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