Games › Shooter › Shooter + Physics
Should I ship a Physics Shooter?
Shooter + Physics
Of 330 developers who shipped a Physics Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 611 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $660, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×571 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 611 games are announced against 186 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $657 (exactly $657) |
| Top 25% | $4.3k (exactly $4,298) |
| Top 5% | $359k (exactly $358,524) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 330 |
| Released games | 1,048 |
| Announced | 611 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Shooter, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 103,132 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 188 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 611 games are announced against 186 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + SnowFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Score AttackLong shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M 
Just Cause™ 3 2015 · $62M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
| | Just Cause™ 3 | older | $19.99 | 104,140 85% | 3.1M | $62M (exactly $62,452,758) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Half-Life 2 | older | $9.99 | 202,782 97% | 6.1M | $61M (exactly $60,773,765) | Valve |
 | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
 | Ravenfield | · EA older | $17.99 | 76,492 96% | 2.3M | $41M (exactly $41,282,732) | SteelRaven7 |
 | BONEWORKS | older | $29.99 | 34,141 92% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $30,716,658) | Stress Level Zero |
 | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
 | How to Fish | $7.99 | 57,661 95% | 1.7M | $14M (exactly $13,821,342) | Dazed Games | |
 | Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades | $19.99 | 22,774 97% | 683k | $14M (exactly $13,657,568) | RUST LTD. | |
 | VOID/BREAKER | · EA | $29.99 | 2,506 91% | 75k | $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) | Stubby Games |
 | Cleared Hot | · EA | $17.99 | 3,934 96% | 118k | $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) | Not Knowing Corporation |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | Lost Skies | $24.99 | 2,470 63% | 74k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) | Bossa Studios | |
 | ANEURISM IV | $9.99 | 5,686 75% | 171k | $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) | Vellocet | |
 | The Walking Trade | $11.99 | 2,733 86% | 82k | $983k (exactly $983,060) | Microwave Games | |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | GERONIMO | · EA | $19.99 | 1,267 81% | 38k | $760k (exactly $759,820) | Dark Matter Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.