Do I ship it?

GamesBoxingBoxing + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Boxing game?

Boxing + Physics

Only 14 developers shipped a Physics Boxing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Electro Bop Boxing League, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $37k, ×60 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $420k → $90 → $1.5k → $1.7k → $718 → $1.2k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Boxing + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 57
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 8 games average 79% positive over 208 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $720, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Boxing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  2. + SimulationFair39 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  3. + StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $4.5k · 21 announced
  4. + FightingPoor odds16 devs · median $4.2k · 26 announced
  5. + 2D FighterPoor odds14 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds30 devs · median $1.4k · 47 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds18 devs · median $1.3k · 24 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds61 devs · median $898 · 62 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds65 devs · median $719 · 84 announced
  10. + CombatPoor odds49 devs · median $719 · 70 announced
  11. + PvPPoor odds16 devs · median $718 · 38 announced
  12. + 3D FighterPoor odds38 devs · median $599 · 57 announced

All 24 pairs on the Boxing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Airport Ground Handling Simulator VR · EA older $29.99 121 61% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) AVIAR B.V.
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
Let's take a bath with Purin 2 older $17.99 133 83% 4.0k $72k (exactly $71,780) Parabolica Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Ultimate MMA older $5.99 196 51% 5.9k $35k (exactly $35,221) Anton Pushkarev
Crazy Kung Fu older $14.99 71 87% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Field Of Vision
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Golden Gloves VR $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Engine Room VR
Mighty Arms $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) NebulaNookGames
Dadlympics · EA $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Gooby Games
Bashing Brutal $7.99 5 60% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lema Games
KONG FU $3.99 6 100% 180 $718 (exactly $718) matthizzone
WhamPunch 超能打 · EA $2.99 4 25% 120 $359 (exactly $359) AWE_some_ZT
Slap Fighter $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Curious Games
Face Puncher 2 · EA $13.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) facePuncher7

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.