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Should I ship a Physics Card Game?
Physics + Card Game
Of 27 developers who shipped a Physics Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2428 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 52 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $90 (exactly $90) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $7.5k (exactly $7,492) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 340% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.34 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 2D, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.34 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 26,445 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M 
ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M 
Gamble With Your Friends 2026 · $4.5M 
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M 
Ballionaire 2024 · $888k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
| | ROUNDS | older | $5.99 | 35,738 95% | 1.1M | $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) | Landfall |
| | Gamble With Your Friends | $7.99 | 18,883 89% | 566k | $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) | TEAM GWYF | |
| | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
 | Dogpile | $9.99 | 708 95% | 21k | $212k (exactly $212,188) | Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot | |
 | Zup! 6 | older | $1.99 | 2,457 93% | 74k | $147k (exactly $146,683) | Quiet River |
 | Fated Kingdom | older | $9.99 | 260 73% | 7.8k | $78k (exactly $77,922) | GameLiberty |
 | Bearnard | older | $16.99 | 152 97% | 4.6k | $77k (exactly $77,474) | Michał Wikliński |
 | Tabletop Playground | · EA older | $14.99 | 121 79% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $54,414) | Plasticity Studios |
 | STICKER/BALL | $7.99 | 118 90% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,285) | bilge | |
 | Infest | $14.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | Chute Apps | |
 | All On Board! | $9.99 | 25 68% | 750 | $7.5k (exactly $7,492) | The Game Kitchen | |
 | Tinker Shot | $4.99 | 30 100% | 900 | $4.5k (exactly $4,491) | CodeRed | |
 | Burnstation | $11.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $2.9k (exactly $2,878) | Klafti Studio | |
 | Casino Casualty | $7.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) | GlitchedLizard |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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