Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Physics game?

Combat + Physics

Of 399 developers who shipped a Combat Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 989 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×679 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 989 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 989 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 399
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $1.2k → $807 → $899 → $748 → $958 → $539 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 399
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $426,529)
Developers, 2 yr 399
Released games 1,091
Announced 989
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Physics; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 166,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 989 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M Space Engineers 2019 · $60M Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M BONELAB 2022 · $22M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
Machine Party $7.99 4,199 87% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) Mike Klubnika, GDeavid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.