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Should I ship a Physics Visual Novel?
Physics + Visual Novel
Only 19 developers shipped a Physics Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×245 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $294 (exactly $294) |
|---|---|
| Median | $807 (exactly $807) |
| Top 25% | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) |
| Top 5% | $154k (exactly $153,710) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 66 |
| Announced | 24 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,540 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition 2025 · $154k 
Horny Housewives 2023 · $90k 
My Sexy Fairies 2026 · $73k 
Shohei's Adult Streaming Channel 2020 · $62k 
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels 2025 · $44k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition | $6.99 | 733 66% | 22k | $154k (exactly $153,710) | Evil Boobs Cult | |
| | Horny Housewives | older | $12.99 | 232 59% | 7.0k | $90k (exactly $90,410) | Entropy Digital Entertainment |
| | My Sexy Fairies | $4.99 | 486 81% | 15k | $73k (exactly $72,754) | Evil Boobs Cult | |
| | Shohei's Adult Streaming Channel | older | $12.99 | 158 62% | 4.7k | $62k (exactly $61,573) | Nurarihyon |
| | Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels | $8.99 | 163 92% | 4.9k | $44k (exactly $43,961) | Tora Creatives | |
 | Shades of Sakura | older | $1.99 | 545 69% | 16k | $33k (exactly $32,536) | BanzaiProject |
 | Rolling in the Maze | older | $1.99 | 509 72% | 15k | $30k (exactly $30,387) | No.25 |
 | Mom got stuck in the washing machine | older | $2.49 | 382 81% | 11k | $29k (exactly $28,535) | Mad Mike Production |
 | Jump the Track | $9.99 | 79 96% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,676) | Seed by Seed | |
 | Depression The Game | older | $1.99 | 257 68% | 7.7k | $15k (exactly $15,343) | DeepWorks Studios |
 | Designated Driver Simulator | · EA | $17.99 | 16 62% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | PostSIM |
 | SOULCOOM | · EA | $19.99 | 14 50% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | 2DXLABS |
 | Phantom Asylum VR | · EA | $9.99 | 8 75% | 240 | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) | SRVR |
 | SEX Dreams at the Motel | $4.99 | 13 30% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | ReluxHub365 | |
 | ابو فانوس - Abu Fanous | $3.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | rspyz (Mohammed Aljohani) | |
 | Vital Signs | $2.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) | grishkogameplay |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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