Should I ship a Physics FPS?
FPS + Physics
Of 226 developers who shipped a Physics FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 472 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 472 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 130% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,593) |
| Top 5% | $579k (exactly $578,768) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 226 |
| Released games | 715 |
| Announced | 472 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 103,341 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 133 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 472 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Half-Life 2 | older | $9.99 | 202,782 97% | 6.1M | $61M (exactly $60,773,765) | Valve |
 | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
 | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
 | Ravenfield | · EA older | $17.99 | 76,492 96% | 2.3M | $41M (exactly $41,282,732) | SteelRaven7 |
 | Brick Rigs | older | $19.99 | 53,749 95% | 1.6M | $32M (exactly $32,233,275) | Fluppisoft GmbH |
 | BONEWORKS | older | $29.99 | 34,141 92% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $30,716,658) | Stress Level Zero |
 | How to Fish | $7.99 | 57,661 95% | 1.7M | $14M (exactly $13,821,342) | Dazed Games | |
 | Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades | $19.99 | 22,774 97% | 683k | $14M (exactly $13,657,568) | RUST LTD. | |
 | Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator | $17.99 | 7,019 83% | 211k | $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) | Biotech Gameworks | |
 | VOID/BREAKER | · EA | $29.99 | 2,506 91% | 75k | $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) | Stubby Games |
 | ANEURISM IV | $9.99 | 5,686 75% | 171k | $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) | Vellocet | |
 | The Walking Trade | $11.99 | 2,733 86% | 82k | $983k (exactly $983,060) | Microwave Games | |
 | Brickadia | · EA | $19.99 | 1,269 81% | 38k | $761k (exactly $761,019) | Brickadia, LLC |
 | GERONIMO | · EA | $19.99 | 1,267 81% | 38k | $760k (exactly $759,820) | Dark Matter Studios |
 | Beyond Sandbox | · EA | $19.99 | 1,223 39% | 37k | $733k (exactly $733,433) | Atlas XR |
 | Arizona Sunshine® VR Remake | $19.99 | 1,203 88% | 36k | $721k (exactly $721,439) | Vertigo Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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