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Should I ship a Fantasy Physics game?
Physics + Fantasy
Of 278 developers who shipped a Fantasy Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 492 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×479 the market median. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 492 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $3.5k (exactly $3,534) |
| Top 5% | $301k (exactly $300,674) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 278 |
| Released games | 810 |
| Announced | 492 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.00 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 36,242 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 161 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 492 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince 2019 · $11M 
Peglin 2024 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince | older | $29.99 | 11,712 88% | 351k | $11M (exactly $10,537,286) | Frozenbyte |
| | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
 | Orcs Must Die! 3 | older | $29.99 | 10,930 85% | 328k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) | Robot Entertainment |
 | Trine 2: Complete Story | older | $19.99 | 15,273 95% | 458k | $9.2M (exactly $9,159,218) | Frozenbyte |
 | Trine Enchanted Edition | older | $14.99 | 12,843 95% | 385k | $5.8M (exactly $5,775,497) | Frozenbyte |
 | Trine 3: The Artifacts of Power | older | $21.99 | 7,301 63% | 219k | $4.8M (exactly $4,816,470) | Frozenbyte |
 | Webbed | older | $9.99 | 13,820 97% | 415k | $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) | Sbug Games |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | Fatekeeper | · EA | $9.99 | 10,605 80% | 318k | $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) | Paraglacial |
 | YAPYAP | $9.99 | 8,385 83% | 252k | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) | Maison Bap | |
 | Lost Skies | $24.99 | 2,470 63% | 74k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) | Bossa Studios | |
 | Cloudheim | · EA | $29.99 | 1,819 81% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,554) | Noodle Cat Games |
 | Eternal Strands | $29.99 | 1,661 87% | 50k | $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) | Yellow Brick Games | |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | Lay of the Land | $19.99 | 1,190 79% | 36k | $714k (exactly $713,643) | Southern Cross Interactive | |
 | Rune Dice | $14.99 | 1,267 79% | 38k | $570k (exactly $569,770) | Smart Raven Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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