Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Beat 'em up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Beat 'em up?

Physics + Beat 'em up

Of 56 developers who shipped a Physics Beat 'em up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $63k, ×101 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 108 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 108 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Beat 'em up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $150 → $1.2k → $2.1k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Beat 'em up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $63,712)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 191
Announced 108
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Beat 'em up; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 2,557 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $63k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Paint the Town Red 2021 · $17M STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition 2009 · $5.2M En Garde! 2023 · $2.5M Rubber Bandits 2021 · $1.7M Endorphin Vice 2022 · EA · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition older $19.99 8,732 77% 262k $5.2M (exactly $5,236,580) LucasArts
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Rubber Bandits older $9.99 5,628 84% 169k $1.7M (exactly $1,686,712) Flashbulb
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
Superfighters Deluxe older $9.99 3,114 89% 93k $933k (exactly $933,266) MythoLogic Interactive
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
Swordsman VR older $19.99 651 68% 20k $390k (exactly $390,405) Sinn Studio Inc.
Terror of Hemasaurus older $14.99 766 91% 23k $344k (exactly $344,470) Loren Lemcke
Monster: Titan's Playground · EA $29.99 273 91% 8.2k $246k (exactly $245,618) Stellar Knights
Pull Stay $16.99 125 97% 3.8k $64k (exactly $63,712) Nito Souji
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
MoonMiners · EA $4.99 200 93% 6.0k $30k (exactly $29,940) MIROWIN
Kraken City $4.99 189 67% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,293) nStarcube
Bean There, Won That $7.99 117 76% 3.5k $28k (exactly $28,045) RemRem Studios
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
We Could Be Heroes $14.99 42 85% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) CebCode Games
Bouncy Weapons $4.99 85 44% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) LeenGameDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.