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Should I ship a Physics Strategy game?
Physics + Strategy
Of 517 developers who shipped a Physics Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 762 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 762 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $4.3k (exactly $4,298) |
| Top 5% | $288k (exactly $287,856) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 517 |
| Released games | 1,498 |
| Announced | 762 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Strategy; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Sandbox
- Price point
- $5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 77,155 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 255 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 762 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Space Engineers 2019 · $60M 
Ravenfield 2017 · EA · $41M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
| | Ravenfield | · EA older | $17.99 | 76,492 96% | 2.3M | $41M (exactly $41,282,732) | SteelRaven7 |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 | older | $19.99 | 48,366 91% | 1.5M | $29M (exactly $29,005,090) | Red Dot Games |
 | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
 | Golf With Your Friends | older | $14.99 | 50,748 88% | 1.5M | $23M (exactly $22,821,376) | Blacklight Interactive, Team17 |
 | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
 | Hardspace: Shipbreaker | older | $34.99 | 19,431 89% | 583k | $20M (exactly $20,396,721) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | Train Sim World® 6 | $49.99 | 2,485 78% | 75k | $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
 | Dungeon Clawler | $14.99 | 3,716 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
 | ALL WILL FALL | $29.99 | 1,262 76% | 38k | $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) | All Parts Connected |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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