Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Physics

Only 11 developers shipped a Physics Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Axis Football 2026, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. Revenue is down 40% on the market, with 7 games announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $239 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 5% $69k (exactly $68,966)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Character Customization, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 202 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $68k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  4. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  11. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  12. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M Football Simulator 2022 · EA · $537k College Bowl 2024 · $197k Axis Football 2024 2023 · $124k Axis Football 2026 2025 · $69k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
College Bowl older $24.99 263 84% 7.9k $197k (exactly $197,171) Super Pixel Games
Axis Football 2024 older $19.99 207 71% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Axis Games
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games
2MD:VR Football Unleashed ALL✰STAR older $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Truant Pixel, LLC
The Jump Guys older $5.99 17 58% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Plitka Games
Dadlympics · EA $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Gooby Games
7on7 Football $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) Spear Interactive, Pyramid Lake Games
Ultimate Soccer $2.99 15 73% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Grands
Retro Rugby $10.00 3 66% 90 $900 (exactly $900) Lombard Games
MINI Rugby: World Tour $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Chunky Games
Bomberball $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Texaur Digital
Rolling Football Player $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA
Battle Ball $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Dawg Patch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.