Do I ship it?

GamesAction RTSAction RTS + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Action RTS?

Action RTS + Physics

Only 13 developers shipped a Physics Action RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Toy Tactics, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 160% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 40 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RTS + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.8k → $748 → $30 → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RTS + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $90,714)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 54
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RTS, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $750, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $90k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Auto BattlerFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  2. + FPSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  3. + PuzzleLong shot16 devs · median $594 · 16 announced
  4. + Turn-Based StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $85k · 16 announced
  5. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds9 devs · median $85k · 18 announced
  6. + Real-TimePoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds26 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds25 devs · median $18k · 54 announced
  9. + SandboxPoor odds30 devs · median $13k · 50 announced
  10. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 51 announced
  11. + Grand StrategyPoor odds25 devs · median $7.5k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds10 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced

All 89 pairs on the Action RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Worbital older $12.99 417 88% 13k $163k (exactly $162,505) Team Jolly Roger
Fire Commander older $14.99 325 66% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Atomic Wolf, Pixel Crow Games
Operation: Polygon Storm older $14.99 233 69% 7.0k $105k (exactly $104,780) Toxic Studio
Toy Tactics $24.99 121 91% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) Kraken Empire
KallaX older $9.99 278 84% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Unexpected
Incident Commander older $19.99 79 50% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) BreakAway Games
Endeavor: Rite of Passage · EA $19.99 32 84% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) Endeavor
Garden Of Mooj older $14.99 23 69% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Kcfos
C.A.R.S. - Creating A Ridiculous Shitshow $7.99 40 97% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) 3Dads Studios
Battle Craft older $17.99 16 81% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Yaremchuk
SpaceCraft Brawl $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) ruploz
Cannon Clicker $5.99 8 75% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Ritual Interactive
Hill Defender · EA $3.99 9 77% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Jendimir
War Job $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Stupid games
BERSERK TANK $4.50 3 66% 90 $405 (exactly $405) WU YU CHENG
Twisted Jam $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Ethan Medjuck
Gateball - Memuro Championship $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Capial Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.